Cotopaxi Travel

Any traveler exercising a tolerable degree of vigilance and planning a trip to Ecuador with some attention to safety and security, must have encountered disturbing reports as result of cursory search of the country in general. In light of such reports, we feel compelled to address some rather condemning media rhetoric and further explain increases in narcotics trafficking-associated activity reported in the region encompassing Ecuador and its neighbors.

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa stated in a Radio Canela interview this January, «We are in a state of war, and we cannot give in to these terrorist groups» (Herington, 2024). Noboa himself at times contributes to the public rhetoric which serves to present a grim picture of the overall security state in Ecuador, especially following an armed attack upon a Guayaquil T.V. station in Guayas Province in January. While indeed a horrific incident, taking place during a live broadcast, expressions such as “Apocalyptic……Epicenter of violence…Explosions across the country” which appear in local and international media have a tendency to conflated events well beyond their geographical relevance. A president who must rely upon a national assembly, appropriate ministries, and foreign aid to approve of and provide critical resources and expertise naturally must somehow underscore their necessity. This unfortunately rather seems to confirm sensationalized accounts of pockets of violent events detailed in the mainstream media. What is still more disturbing is the discovery that proper work groups and think tanks reputedly conducting data and other evidence-based crisis evaluations also seem to be developing their findings based primarily from news media reports. While this could be due to a lack of statistics originating from reliable or confirmable sources, all too often critical data is also omitted that might bring the situation into proper context.

Though we see a concerning rate of 44.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants throughout Ecuador and 2,807 homicides in the city of Guayaquil for 2023 (Statista, 2024), the bulk of homicides have occurred in the border and coastal provinces of Esmeraldas, Guayas, Manabí, Los Ríos, Manabí, El Oro, and Santa Elena, while homicide and violent crime numbers remain low areas more relevant to adventure tourism in Ecuador. For 2023, Cotopaxi, Tungurahua, and Chimborazo Provinces reported homicide rates of 7.02, 5.68, and 5.3 respectively, while Pichincha Province, encompassing the city of Quito, had a rate of 9.55 (PADF, 2023). Guayas Province alone accounts for 47% of all homicides in 2023, while the city of Cuenca, another popular tourist destination, reported a rate of 3.5. Meanwhile, homicide rates for all of 2023 in the Andean Sierra region decreased compared with the previous year (Cuenca High Life, 2024).

We endeavor to present, in a multi-part series, somewhat of an analysis into the cycles and root causes, obtained from select sources, which may explain recent abrupt spikes in crime in operationally relevent areas of Ecuador, as well as indicators, or lack, of violent activity potentially compromising areas in common use by our clients. A much-vaunted approach to reporting a complex issue of marked increases in violent crime over a narrow time gap in the mainstream media is attributing it, somewhat superficially, to a series of events acting as catalysts to create a corresponding flow of “chaos”, often incorrectly asserted as occurring throughout Ecuador. Those being, for example, the widely reported escape of two major leaders of local gangs Los Lobos and Los Choneros from prison in January, Fabricio Colon Pico and Jose Adolfo Macias Villamar, as well as the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in late 2023.

Some add another layer, presenting a glimpse of the convergence of forces occurring in both the Colombian drug production trends impacting and complicating operations further down the narco-trafficking supply chain in Ecuador–and the involvement of Mexican cartels–as the main catalyst behind downstream spikes in crime occurring in coastal locations within Ecuador. Still, while it’s easy to attribute climbing homicides rates to turf wars between two dominant gangs and their affiliated Mexican Cartel handlers, perhaps there are other factors at play. For instance, a significant portion of homicide numbers can be attributed also to multiple massacres occurring in the prisons, instigated primarily by local rival gangs Los Lobos and Los Choneros, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Thanks to the efforts of former President Guillermo Lasso, the mass incarceration approach produced hundreds of violent gang members with free access to comparatively petty offenders as recruitment fodder. Another unintended consequence is the free association of high-level brass within local violent criminal networks among the prison general population and their successful infiltration within guard force and other authoritative parties. Infiltration tends to produce additional advantageous outcomes in the form of contraband weapons and communication devices to create an environment very conducive to carrying out violent enforcement of their interests in their respective outside turfs.

Some media sources believe it’s worth taking into heavy consideration the attributing of recent spikes in crime to the parallel phenomenon of a recent sharp increase in yield of coca leaf in Colombia. Ecuador sits on a confluence of two major cocaine transshipment routes, originating in both Peru and Colombia. As recent as 2019, at least two major Mexican cartels, Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and Sinaloa, who maintain a presence in Colombia and Peru to oversee production, processing, and shipment, have increased their presence in Guayaquil and Esmeraldas, and expanded the operational role of their local criminal support proxies. Due to the failure of multiple Colombian administrations to follow up on their coca eradication efforts, both groups have seized the opportunity of equipping the remaining coca farmers with cultivation techniques which increase yield (by as much as 30% by some estimates), while requiring a smaller area of cultivation. Additionally, recruiting the assistance of chemical experts schooled and trained in the U.S., they’ve also added innovations to existing processing methods which increase the concentration of cocaine in the final product. This resulted in a marked, though temporary, spike in availability of the drug and increasing shipping operations in the Ecuador port areas.

While this all makes sense from an economic standpoint, other reports show agronomic methods being exercised in Bolivia and Colombia, detected as early as perhaps 2002 (UNODC, 2005), and a limited increase in fresh coca leaf yield in the region of +10% from 2019 to 2020 despite a 7% decrease in area of cultivation in the same time period (UNODC, 2021). Additionally, although some reports have declared the Colombian coca market as “crashing” due to a sudden decreased demand, the results, as yet, don’t seem to impact transshipment operations in Guayaquil, or at least, competition for control over such. Multiple studies point to an anticipated explosion in the cocaine market in Africa and Asia, and operations in Colombia and Peru have, for now, somewhat stabilised. Also more promising in the order of shedding light on causality specifically with regards to increased narco-trafficking in Ecuador’s coastal areas, which will be discussed further in later editions, are factors contributing to the markedly amplified lethality of cartels and their increased access to disruptive tech leveraged in tactical operations, together with the disparity in tactical skill (at present) with the National Police.

As for adventure sports in Ecuador, though the tourism market is impacted significantly by damning media reports and some travel advisories, travelers should, even in light of the requisite clarifications above, exercise caution regardless of where they travel. Though crime numbers have remained relatively stable in Quito, one should still exercise vigilance in ensuring a robust physical security apparatus while seeking accommodations in major cities, the discreet handling of phones and wallets in public and in transport, and obtain secure, licensed modes of travel. While reputable international travel security evacuation services are available, this of course ought to represent the last line of defense and should not replace rational caution and common sense. Since Mexican cartels habitually wish to avoid international attention from media and authorities, especially where U.S. citizens are involved, if traveling in the coastal areas, one should bear in mind that the groups who strictly enforce this ethic have a limited presence in the high-crime areas of Ecuador and it is not well understood how much control they have over the actions of their Ecuadorian proxy groups. Additionally, while foreign support is in the works, Ecuadorian security forces posed a limited deterrence value in military operations carried out against armed groups in Guayaquil and Esmeraldas over the past few months. Use of an accredited guide service would be highly prudent, which can give one the relative peace of mind they so desire in their adventure travel activitivity.

Sources:

Identifying Ecuador’s Most Turbulent Zones

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